We Take Speculating VERY Serious
Buy & Hold WILL NOT work in this economy. We try to identify positive trends in various sectors, focus on companies with large cash positions and low debt, and track 55 of the World’s Top economists and fund managers / strategists – color coding sentiment for each one and using this as our market Barometer.
Between October 1/08 and March 31/09 we watched the DJIA lose 30%, S&P lose 31%, and Nasdaq lose 26%. During the same period our (Virtual) MicroCap Vulture Fund lost on 2 stocks and locked in gains that averaged 108% on 27 others. In addition, we continued to Hold/Track 38 stocks heading into May 2009 - 4 in a minor loss position and the remainder were up 60% to 90%
While most investor portfolios failed to recover even moderate losses from 2008 (one of the most devastating periods in market history), we built a portfolio of 67 cash rich microcaps that lost on 6 and gained almost 100% for the others - a 91% success rate with dramatically strong gains.
Q3/09 to Q4/10 may be one of the Most Important Periods in our Financial History
Depression or Severe Recession scenarios will be tested - which may result in deflation or hyper-inflation. Deflation being the lesser of the two evils. Short term, U.S. intervention is working fine, but within this window, tremendous risks exist.
The only way to succeed (not just with microcaps, but overall portfolio management), is to carefully monitor world events and the top economists and money managers.
A March 2009 interview with Warren Buffet showed how dangerously close the global economy came to destruction in September (within a one to two week window). Intervention by world governments succeeded in pulling us from the brink... but problems of that magnitude do not correct themselves quickly.
Mid April 2009 the IMF issued the following warning:
"The International Monetary Fund has warned of "worrisome parallels" between the current global crisis and the Great Depression, despite the unprecedented steps already taken by central banks and governments worldwide. This recession is likely to be "unusually long and severe, and the recovery sluggish," said the Fund, releasing two advance chapters from its World Economic Outlook. However, it warned there is a risk that it could spiral down into a full-blown slump unless further action is taken to stop "feedback effects" gathering force."
OUR UNIQUE AND PROVEN APPROACH WITH MICROCAP.COM
- We track 55 of the world's top economists, strategists, and fund managers (a list I have compiled over the past decade). We color code their market sentiment (neutral, bullish, bearish) for the short term, along with brief comments, and use this as an overall Market Barometer. This will serve us well not only for microcaps, but overall portfolio planning.
In addition to our cash rich companies which we have already made tremendous gains on, we will continually revise and add to this list and use this table (called the MicroCap Vulture Fund) on a regular basis to play ongoing bear. Economic recovery, recession, or depression... cash will remain king so long as debt and burn rates are low.
We monitor a large list of stock picks from various sources that include other newsletters, brokerage firms, and our own research. This is presented in a table format on the StreetSignal website and we try to watch for abnormal jumps in price and volume that may signal news enroute or a bullish run on the share price.
Throughout the day we also monitor news being issued by the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) and TSX.V companies to try and spot breaking fundamentals which may move a stock short term. This is also used to identify new companies we may prepare separate research reports on.
Depending upon market activity, we typically issue a couple email updates or research reports through the week but the StreetSignal website is updated daily. The paid newsletter includes all email updates, research reports, and access to our private StreetSignal site.
MicroCap will focus 100% on Canadian equities as that is an area I have specialized in for 25 years. The U.S. dollar going forward presents huge risks and the OTCBB is full of manipulation and scams. We will stick with what we know best and with Canadian Banks ranked the highest in the world, we know we have a safety net regardless of what direction this economy takes.
Specializing in Canadian Stocks… with a Global Perspective
In Canada, the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) and TSX Venture Exchange (TSX.V) provide some of the best Global Exposure anywhere to smallcap and microcap public companies with strong growth potential in the areas of:
(I) Gold , Precious & Base Metals & Minerals (II) Energy: Oil, Natural Gas, Uranium, Coal, Geothermal, Solar, (III) Water, Infrastructure, and Agricultural commodities (IV) Technology, Biotechnology, and Health Care
www.tsx.com
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